Background scenarios to the election

A reshaping of the alliance is also being mooted by the current governing body. There is talk

in the lobbies of the AKP preparing alternatives depending on the results or to counter clear

threats. A number of options are said to be on the table from a change of partner to policy

realignment. But, on the governing front, uncertainty rather than a defined position in this

regard is deemed more beneficial mindful both of keeping all potential benefits alive and the

confusion this sows on the other side

• What lies behind the harmonisation law initiative and talk of talk of them having A, B and

C plans?

An unending election-related discussion keeps going with new arguments: There is talk of a

variety of scenarios going as far as the election having no importance, the infrastructure of

the new regime already having been set up, surprise preparations having been made for the

election result and even that the election may not be held under some pretext. Each word that

is spoken and each step that is taken is used as proof of these scenarios and hidden agendas.

Erdoğan, who has not yet managed to create the impression of being the undisputed victor of

the election, the dominator of the agenda and the sole playmaker of politics, has for some

time been using these conspiracy scenarios that are multiplying in opposition circles to

further an effortless display of power. The belief that he will absolutely find a way of

winning or will withhold consent even if he loses feeds the perception of invincibility. The

threat of instability/destabilisation works in the governing body’s favour.

• Are claims of the results being open to surprise and a “bounce-back from the bottom”

realistic?

Research and analyses that merit consideration do not speak of very radical shifts between

voting blocks. There is nevertheless talk of a bounce-back that has yet to turn into

determinable trends and the potential for a surprise result. The capability of alliances to turn

very small percentages into large differences and the impossibility of fully measuring the

effect that the shattering of certain preconceptions has created and will create fuel

expectations of a surprise. But, as to what the surprise will be, this remains an enigma. The

opposition parties voice the claim that a bounce-back the like of which has rarely been

witnessable is taking place. Particularly spokespersons of the Good Party and SP who allege

that they will take votes from the governing party. Both the governing party and the

opposition allege that the electorate is readying itself to deliver a slap and treat 24 June as a

fresh starting point. With certain claims supported by exaggerated and suspicion-provoking

polls, great recourse is made to the thesis that the true result is not fully measurable.

Unknowability is everyone’s game.