Search for a remedy in the AKP corridors: MHP supporters and Gül

There has been discussion in the AKP corridors about playing the trump card and telling the MHP it will be included in the government after the referendum to win MHP voters over to ‘Yes’.

Yayınlanma: 04.04.2017 - 15:24
Abone Ol google-news

Erdem Gül
 
As the date of the referendum approaches, the AKP’s attention is turning towards the MHP, the bulk of whose support base is shown by the polls to favour ‘No’ even if its leadership has said ‘Yes’. The AKP has thus begun to talk about searching for a formula that will win over the MHP base while taking the sensitivities of Kurdish voters in the West, especially Istanbul, into consideration.
As opposed to other elections, the AKP has preferred to remain silent on the matter of polls. But, this silence does not mean that the AKP is not commissioning polls into the progression of the referendum. The AKP continues to have surveys made from province to province and region to region and for the whole of Turkey about the result that will emerge on 16 April. The AKP has seen in the polls that MHP voters are distant from ‘Yes’ and, indeed, are closer to ‘No’, the issue that is dominating discussion of this referendum.
Alarm over the MHP
In the polls the AKP has got hold of, it emerges that two-thirds of MHP voters will not vote ‘Yes’ and support ‘No’ or are more favourable towards ‘No’. With these findings compounded by the impressions on the AKP side that the MHP is not conducting an effective grass-roots campaign and campaigning by pro-No MHP opposition figures is more fruitful, a full state of alarm has been launched over the MHP.
Coalition card
Discussions are being held in the AKP about formulas for persuading MHP voters and diverting them from ‘No’. The opinions being voiced are that the most effective formula for persuading MHP voters involves giving this party the chance to be in the government. According to the constitutional package, if ‘Yes’ emerges in the referendum, since the presidential election will be held in 2019, it is envisaged that the present government will remain in office for a further two years. With this in mind, a proposal is starting to be touted such that the message will be given in an announcement: ‘We will include the MHP in the government after 16 April. Certain ministries will be given to the MHP and a coalition will be established’ so as to win over MHP voters. As the MHP has not been in power for years, it is thought that talk of government partnership will have a considerable influence on MHP voters.
Concerns over Kurdish voters
However, this formula has as many minuses as plusses, and a decision on this matter has eluded the AKP for fear of negatively affecting the crucially important Kurdish vote. Even though the HDP is unable to campaign adequately due to its co-chairs and a large number of its MPs being in pre-trial detention, its voters are expected to vote overwhelmingly ‘No’. However, despite the presence of the HDP, there are also conservative Kurdish voters, a serious number of whom are expected to vote ‘No’. Conservative Kurdish voters do not live in the South East alone. The ranks of the conservative Kurdish voters are large enough to influence the result of the referendum in the West, especially Istanbul. The AKP has been unable to make a move over the MHP in the endeavour not to lose the Kurdish electorate in its entirety. The AKP has also decided not to play the coalition card at this stage because, in addition to concerns over Kurdish votes, it is also worried that any advantages conferred on the MHP might increase the number of ‘secret No supporters’ within its own ranks.
Abdullah Gül’s preference
One of the hottest points of debate over the referendum is Abdullah Gül’s preference. Gül’s non-participation at two meetings held by Prime-Minister Binali Yıldırım with people from his old party has been taken to mean that he sides with ‘No’. His failure to attend the rally in his home city of Kayseri has strengthened this perception. Gül’s older announcements about his opposition to a Turkish-style presidency are also being posted. Gül has said absolutely nothing about his preference in the referendum as events have unfolded. But, the word in the corridors is that Gül is not perturbed at the perception that he is on the ‘No’ side, nor does he wish to be seen on the ‘Yes’ campaign or make his preference known. The same assessments are being made with regard to former Prime-Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu. It is known that relations between the two figures in the AKP over whose preferences there is most speculation have not been good since 2014, when Gül’s bid for a second term as president coincided with Davutoğlu’s time as prime minister. It is no great secret that Gül in particular is angry at Davutoğlu. Despite this, it is said in AKP circles that Gül and Davutoğlu have come together and spoken during this process. It is stated that, for this reason, the two figures have adopted a shared viewpoint and distanced themselves from the ‘Yes’ campaign. There is talk in the AKP that many MPs, also including ministers, and those in their entourage may be ‘secret No supporters’.


Cumhuriyet Tatil Otel Rezervasyon

En Çok Okunan Haberler