ANAR CEO İbrahim Uslu: Mayors not the problem in the AKP

CEO İbrahim Uslu of ANAR polling company, known for the polls it conducts for the AKP, said that the operation targeting mayors in the AKP will not compensate for the lost votes in the referendum. Uslu indicated that the problem the AKP was having in the metropolises was not down to the mayors.

Yayınlanma: 25.10.2017 - 16:07
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Erdem Gül
 
There is debate over the electoral and grassroots support for the new party that will set out on the road today of Meral Akşener, who was expelled for contesting the general chairship in the MHP, and which parties it will take votes from, with special focus on the AKP. CEO İbrahim Uslu of ANAR polling company, known for the polls it conducts for the AKP, said there were disgruntled voters in the three parties (AKP, CHP, MHP) and these voters showed interest in Akşener for multifarious reasons, but it would not be easy to satisfy them all at once. Uslu said with reference to the operations in the AKP targeting mayors, “The reason ‘no’ prevailed in the metropolises during the referendum is not the mayors.” Uslu assessed Akşener’s party and developments in the AKP for Cumhuriyet.
 
She has potential: Meral Akşener has potential. Polls also show this. There are disgruntled bodies of voters in the three parties (AKP, CHP, MHP). This can be substantiated. Akşener is courting the interest of the disgruntled bodies of voters in these three parties. But, her task is not easy.  This is because the reasons the disgruntled voters in all three of the three parties are disgruntled are different from one another. Hence, it is very difficult to combine these bodies of voters who are disgruntled all for different reasons and are looking for something new in the same melting pot.
 
Dependent on performance: The thing that will really challenge Akşener is whether she will succeed in assembling the voters in each party that are disposed towards her under a joint umbrella. Given that the three different bodies of voters are looking for quite different things, we need to see what kind of rabbit she will pull from the hat to bring them together under a joint umbrella. We have not been able to see any clues about this in developments and the comments made so far. It is true that she has potential, but harvesting that potential will depend very much on the performance that she and her party display from now on. It is not enough to court the electorate’s interest, you need to convert that to voting intention. And this depends on what you do.
 
In assessing the chances of Meral Akşener and her new formation, the percentages of voters that are loyal or not to their parties may be a metric. Research shows that some 70% and perhaps a little more of the electorate in Turkey is loyal to their parties. There is a percentage in the region of twenty that is not loyal. There is a block of voters in every election of around ten per cent whose political leanings are unknown because they are first-time voters. So, we are talking of a potential in the range of the thirty per cents.
 
Mayors operation: Especially his excellency the President’s unseating operations directed at mayors with his “metal fatigue” pronouncement is a first in terms of AKP tradition. In previous periods, inclusivity and unity were brought to the fore. The AKP machine is used to this. So, they are experiencing a first. It is abundantly clear that preparations are underway for the two critical elections in 2019. But, I am of the view that these moves will not bring the desired benefit.
 
Loss not down to the mayors: I do not think that the votes lost in the referendum can be compensated for through a reshuffling of posts. It is presented as being the changing of unsuccessful mayors. This means that the issue is the metropolises where the ‘no’ vote was high in the referendum and taking steps mindful of the elections to be held here again in 2019. However, when we look at the referendum, the reason that ‘no’ polled well in the metropolitan cities, not least Istanbul and Ankara, is not the mayors. The vote in the referendum was not for mayor but for other things. I thus do not think that the lost votes will be recovered by ousting mayors and other steps need to be taken.
 
What about the urban voter?: Let us not forget that the metropolitan voters who cast “no” votes in the referendum were white-collar urban voters. These voters have economic, social and international needs and demands. These demands must be noted in the preparations for 2019.


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