The strike is limited and Ankara’s position will be unaffected

Ever since the “Euphrates Shield” operation that it started with US incitement and Russian approval, Ankara has in a sense been compelled to manage the US and Russia conjunctively in Syria. The airstrike that the Western powers staged yesterday against Syria does not inhibit Ankara from conducting this obligatory counterbalancing policy between the two big adversaries.

Had yesterday’s operation been the beginning of a series of airstrikes aimed at demolishing the regime’s military and administrative infrastructure, we may have thought differently. Under such circumstances, all equations would have been upset and we would have spoken of being on a direct path towards a regional war between the great powers. Ankara would see that it could no longer manage its position vis-à-vis Russia and the US in the existing form and would be forced to adopt a new position.

The strike in which the three large Western powers fired 112 missiles against various targets in Syria yesterday did not have the aim of crushing the regime. On the other hand, it was not a “symbolic” or “cosmetic” attack. The US’s operation in April 2017 in which it targeted Shayrat Airbase in Syria with Tomahawks in response to the Damascus regime’s chemical attack in Khan Shaykhun in the Idlib countryside was of a “cosmetic nature.”

Yesterday’s, by contrast, was a real operation aimed at “punishing” and “deterring.”

Even so, it will not give rise to a change in the course of events in Syria. But it may rather give a new direction to events and, in that case, things will get very complex.

As to the Western forces that staged the operation, we realise that they are seemingly unwilling to enter into direct conflict with Russia and Iran.

For example, British Prime Minister Theresa May herself said it was “not about regime change.”

French President Emmanuel Macron said the strikes had been limited to Syria's chemical weapons facilities.

US Defense Secretary Jim Mattis stated, “The strike was a one-off.”

These pronouncements met with a positive response from Russia, too. The Russians announced that there was no loss of Russian personnel from the strike and their own air defence systems did not intervene against the missiles fired by the West. Meaning: “You did not harm us and we did not touch you, so there is no need for escalation.”

There will of course be condemnations and vilifications. These form part of the public relations side of things.

Just like the Foreign Ministry in Ankara’s announcement that it considers the operation to be an appropriate response and welcomes it. Neither this announcement nor similar statements by the ruling body in Turkey will suffice to spoil Russian-Turkish cooperation in Syria. Other reasons will be needed for this.

In the end, Ankara announced that the İncirlik Airbase was not used in the strike. And there is no better place than İncirlik for such a strike. Ankara spoke its words but stayed out of the action. That is all that was called for.