Is Bahçeli setting a trap?

MHP General Chair Bahçeli’s proposal for the holding of an early election on 26 August has caused flurry in the AKP lobbies. The take in the AKP lobbies is that there has long been talk of the expectation of an early election, the election can be brought forward but it is not correct for the date to be announced before discussions have been held between the two parties. There is also discussion in the party of an early election having as many negative as positive aspects.

 The expectation of an early general and presidential election for which Bahçeli has proposed the date of 26 August has long been spoken of in the corridors of Parliament and political lobbies. Indeed, heading the list of frequently mooted scenarios was one in which the AKP would get MHP General Chair Devlet Bahçeli to make the first announcement and President Tayyip Erdoğan, who says in virtually all of his speeches that the elections will be held on time, would say, “I actually wanted them to be on time, but if Mr Bahçeli so wishes let us hold an early election.” Prime Minister Binali Yıldırım’s surprise visit two weeks ago to MHP General Chair Bahçeli had also been interpreted as a testing of the waters for an early election. The initial spin put on Bahçeli’s statement was that this was staged between the AKP and MHP and there was no way Erdoğan could not have known. However, confusion has ensued from Erdoğan’s statement shortly after Bahçeli’s comment that he would meet with him today and his attending the group meeting without raising this matter at all and also the stress he has laid on November 2019.

 He spoke to staff

 Erdoğan convened with Prime Minister Binali Yıldırım and party administrators immediately after the group meeting. Apparently, during the roughly one-hour meeting, Erdoğan asked party staff not to evaluate Bahçeli’s proposal and requested that they wait until the conclusion of the meeting he will hold today with Bahçeli. With Erdoğan mentioning today’s discussions following the meeting and indicating, “I have nothing to say at the moment,” this has led to speculation that Erdoğan had no knowledge of the affair and was put out by Bahçeli making such an announcement without consulting him. With certain party administrators saying that today’s Erdoğan-Bahçeli meeting had already been pencilled in, certain other party administrators were saying that Erdoğan had no knowledge of it and the meeting was fixed that day. Erdoğan, having chatted to Parliamentary Speaker İsmail Kahraman in his office for a while and to Prime Minister Yıldırım and party administrators, left parliament.

 As much as there are those in the party who consider the early election proposal to be a “surprise,” there are also those who note that the expected has happened, the election was going to be held early and this is what had been on the cards. In the party lobbies, the following analysis is being made of the possible positive and negative aspects that will be entailed if the election is held early:

 Should have been announced jointly: If an early election is to be decided on, this should be announced jointly to the public as a common decision after the leaders have convened and made an assessment.

 If Bahçeli’s target is the Good Party, this is wrong: An early election has been expected for some time and a decision to this effect can be taken. But, the matter of the date is problematic. Bahçeli may particularly have chosen the date of 26 August to prevent the Good Party from contesting the election. If the Supreme Election Council deems the congress the Good Party held on 1 April to be valid, it may only contest an election held after 1 October. The inability of the Good Party to contest the election, in turn, will do injustice to Meral Akşener and this situation will harm Erdoğan in the presidential election.

 There can be an early election but the date can change: It will become clear at Bahçeli’s meeting today with Erdoğan whether the election is going to be brought forward. The election can be brought forward, but its date can change. It is planned to hold the party’s big congress towards the end of June. There will remain a very short time between the congress and the election and this situation will affect the party negatively. The grudges and indignation ensuing from potential changes made to the party’s committees, party administration and the cabinet at the congress held a short time before the election will have a debilitating effect on the campaigning process.

 Is Bahçeli setting a trap?: There is a body within the party that still does not trust the MHP and Bahçeli. When speaking of the possibility that this pronouncement by Bahçeli is a trap for the AKP, it is noted, “Bahçeli made the same pronouncement in 2002. However, while he remained below the threshold in the election, it also spelt the end for the ANAP, DYP and DSP.”

 It will bring an advantage if held in the autumn: Holding the local elections before the general election will be detrimental to the alliance between the two parties. Actual alliances can be formed between the two parties in certain provinces, but the intense rivalry and possible tension between candidates and organisations in provinces in which both parties are strong will have a negative effect on the alliance that will be formed in the presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for seven months later. Consequently, the moving of the general election to before the local election will bring advantages in terms both of the presidential and parliamentary election. If the parliamentary election is held first, there will be no problem for members of parliament who will stand for mayor. Especially if Prime Minister Binali Yıldırım stands for Istanbul Metropolitan Mayor, there will be no need to go through the processes of appointing the prime minister and creating a government again.

 AKP kulisleri hareketlendi: Bahçeli tuzak mı kuruyor?