Cost well above 24 billion

The first message that the election package announced by Prime Minister Binali Yıldırım gave was that the AKP is worried about the 24 June elections.

There was talk of the process encompassing the Afrin operation and the People’s Alliance proclaimed following the operation not guaranteeing the ruling party 51 per cent.

The procedural barriers that placed electoral participation by the Good Party in doubt given the forced election timetable, and, with these having been surmounted thanks to the CHP’s initiative, the visitors “sent” to former President Gül brought this worry into plain view.

And finally, the package in question that will end up with budget resources being scattered around in a manner reminiscent of the 90’s testifies to the AKP’s worries over losing power having turned into fear.

So much so that bandying about incorrect figures, or getting others to do so, is the order of the day.

 Which 24 billion?

Prime Minister Yıldırım said the cost to the budget of the package that will directly impact on the wallets of millions of voters from the retired to small businesspeople and farmers to university students was 24 billion lira. However, when we consider the multifarious components of the package such as amnesties, restructuring, discounts, debt write-off and increased payouts as a whole this figure does not reflect the true situation.

Let us stress, acting on the presumption that prime ministers would not knowingly mislead society, that the announced figure is erroneous and attempt to break down the figures.

 Pensions alone 23 billion

 Let us leave the lengthy list to one side. The pledge of a “thousand lira annual bonus for pensioners before each of Eid al-Fitr and Eid al-Adha” alone takes us very close to the stated total cost of the package.

Viz: According to Social Security Institution data, the number of people in receipt of pensions in Turkey is 11,473,735. (This breaks down as follows: Social Security Institution: 7, 070,162, Social Security Institution for the Self-Employed: 2,430,880, civil servants: 1,972,693)

Giving a total of 11,473,735 people a one-thousand-lira bonus each comes to 11.473735 billion lira. If you pay this bonus on two eids, this imposes a burden of 22.9 billion lira on the budget. That is, taking as read the 24 billion lira which Prime Minister Yıldırım has proclaimed, when the retired are given one thousand lira at each eid, there remains 1.1 billion lira.

Moreover, this amount must stretch to all the remaining components of the package. If the esteemed Prime Minister does not deem stock amnesties, penalty restructuring, deferred retirement contributions, health facilities and contribution allowances for the young to be “costs”, there is nothing to be said. But, there is talk of the penalties, tax and contributions that the state has waived under the package amounting to at least 20 billion lira. In this case, the total size of the impact the package will have on the fiscal system is expected to be at least some 40 billion lira. Finance Minister Naci Ağbal said at the end of last year during debate on a bill in parliament that there would be no more tax amnesties and Deputy Prime Minister Mehmet Şimşek also said with reference to the CHP’s pledge of bonuses for pensioners at election time, “Let them point to the source and I will vote for the CHP.”

These reminders are concrete examples of the way the ruling party engages in politics without recourse to memory. What is more palpable and striking, though, is the misstating of figures or getting others to do this when the state’s official figures are in full view and thus the truth can be gleaned from making simple calculations.

It is truly a pity.

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