By way of supplement: There is the feeling of fed-upness and decrepitness that they
have created in the country. Today, we can talk of a total power atrophy.
On a television programme, the owner of a polling company that does polls for the governing
party said, “Erdoğan will be elected president with 55% of the vote. This is what the surveys
we have done show. The margin of error puts the vote in the 53-58% range.” I am reminded
of yet another “well-known” polling company owner who was propelled to the fore in
advance of the referendum: he was so propelled because he said a 58% “yes” would emerge
and diverged from all the other polling companies’ results. But what a divergence! He has yet
to even make it back onto the screens.
It is obvious that the governing party sacrificed this company on the altar of creating the
perception that it was a done deal before the referendum. I do not imagine that it suffered
material loss; it continues to get work from governing party municipalities.
No, I do not wish to say that the claim about 55% in the presidential election is absolutely a
thing of this kind. Not yet.
We know that in politics even short spaces of time can produce changes of direction inspired
by important events.
But, going forward, extraordinary situations can throw up direction-changing situations that,
rather than benefiting the governing party, are to its detriment. I mean, for instance, the
manufacturing of the election results from 7 June to 1 November was an entirely sui generis
work of engineering and the product of its conditions and cannot be recreated.
The basic mathematics behind the 49.5%
So, what is the basis of the claim that Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will get a vote of 55%?
Never mind this claim, can Recep Tayyip Erdoğan or any other candidate get 50%+1 in the
The most relevant data to hand pertaining to the recent past are the results of the referendum
which we can describe as being 50-50%. The claims of the AKP+MHP alliance that “the
results are one hundred per cent guaranteed” came to naught. What if the Supreme Election
Council’s machinations had not been involved?
How many AKP votes could there have been in the referendum? There are various estimates
putting it at around 43%.
It fell to below 41% in the 7 June 2015 elections!
The PKK moved in and terrorism led to a consolidation around the governing party.
It subsequently got 49.5% in the 1 November elections. There was a swing of up to 4.5% to
the AKP from Felicity and the HDP. There was one of the same magnitude from the MHP.
This is the basic mathematics behind the 49.5%. PKK terrorism has always affected elections
to the benefit of the AKP, has been grist to the mill of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and has served
to create abnormal conditions; normal electoral conduct cannot be expected in these abnormal
It can be said that the PKK made the greatest contribution towards Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s
single-man status in the AKP and the country.
Nearly two years have passed since then; have things played out to the benefit of the AKP?
A socio-political analysis covering the past three years would position the AKP prior to the 1
June 2015 elections. The sole difference here is that conservative Kurds have become well
and truly sickened of the PKK and can thus be said to have moved away from the HDP. If,
today, questions arise as to whether the HDP has threshold troubles, this is the reason.
Undoubtedly, along with the PKK, the FETO affair and the USA’s pressures on Turkey have
given succour to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s rule. These two events may have boosted Recep
Tayyip Erdoğan by one or two points as against the 2015 June elections.
But, it is fair to presume that the deep economic crisis and the AKP’s hopelessness have
eliminated these points.
For all these reasons, the auguries point to an AKP+MHP alliance score in the presidential
election at below 48%.
No floating vote in the periphery
The floating vote that Recep Tayyip Erdoğan-the AKP can get from the periphery for the
presidency is close to zero, because there is a home for all votes: the candidates will just get
their own votes. The AKP, CHP, Good Party, Felicity and the Patriotic Party.
Only the MHP’s vote will go the AKP; the MHP’s votes are also split and, as in the
referendum, will not suffice to transport Recep Tayyip Erdoğan into the presidency.
Bahçeli’s recent overtures about a pardon can be presumed to be an effort to garner votes for
the MHP. But, do not forget that alongside the votes this will get from the families of the
imprisoned, there are also those of victims on the outside that this will lose.
To sum up, the way the upcoming elections stack up mean that it appears impossible for any
party to get 50%+1.
There is another very important factor working against the AKP- Recep Tayyip Erdoğan:
The atmosphere of fed-upness and decrepitness they have created in the country: Enough
Today, we can talk of a total power atrophy.