Big cities scare the AKP in its risk analysis

Erdem Gül
 
MHP General Chair Devlet Bahçeli has raised debate over the ten per cent electoral threshold, but it is not the threshold but the timing of the elections that is weighing on the AKP’s mind. Due to concerns in the AKP that if they lose Istanbul and Ankara in the local elections, they will also lose the general elections, the idea is being voiced of bringing the presidential elections forward to 2018. Whenever discussion breaks out over the elections, ruling party spokespersons state that the elections will be held on time. Under this scenario, 2019 will first see the holding of local elections in March, with the presidential and parliamentary elections following in November. MHP leader Bahçeli, also signalling his lack of a desire for early elections, has raised the issue of reducing the ten per cent electoral threshold for the 2019 elections. Bahçeli has not yet succeeded in drawing the attention of the AKP, which acts as his unofficial partner, in the direction of the threshold. This is attributable to calculations over the timing of the elections, said to be the most critical electoral process since the election in 2002 that brought it to power, being of greater interest to the AKP than the threshold issue. For some time in the AKP, the existence of a new “risk area” has been identified with reference to the two elections that will be held one after the other in 2019. This risk has come into play because, if the elections are not brought forward, the local elections will be held first. The risk is formulated in terms of losing Istanbul and Ankara. For the first time since the AKP came to power in 2002, serious concerns are being raised over the potential loss of Istanbul and Ankara Metropolitan Municipalities. In fact, the starting point for this period is even taken back to 1994 in which the closed RP came to power in municipalities.
 
Referendum results
 
The results in Istanbul and Ankara in the 16 April referendum constitute the main source for this risk coming into play. The ‘no’ vote overtook the ‘yes’ vote in both cities. Especially the continuation in polls subsequently conducted of the decline in electoral support and the trend for urban-conservative-young voters to drift away from the AKP has translated into alarm over Istanbul and Ankara. There are increasing internal party concerns that the forced resignation of the Istanbul and Ankara mayors in the ensuing process under the rubric of “metal fatigue” has stoked confusion in the machine and base. The past inability for the MHP, which lost a significant proportion of its voters to the ‘no’ camp in the referendum, to pull its weight in local elections has given rise to analyses that even in elections that might be fought under a potential alliance with this party this would not eliminate the risk posed in Istanbul and Ankara.
 
Fifty per cent plus one in local elections, too
 
Messages that the CHP and parties that made up the ‘no’ camp in the referendum will once more act jointly have also shaped this thinking by the AKP. Good Party General Chair Meral Akşener’s proclamation that she has set herself the target of becoming president is seen as a sign that this party will act in unison with the opposition block in the local elections. The CHP’s endeavours to bring in figures who will take votes from other parties and similar positioning by the HDP has given rise to the conclusion in the AKP that in the local elections, just as in the presidential elections, it will be necessary to get fifty per cent plus one to win the election in the big cities, not least Istanbul and Ankara.
 
Domino effect
 
Sparked off by these conclusions, views are doing the rounds that the loss of Istanbul and Ankara in the local elections slated for March 2019 may upset all plans. Concerns are being voiced that the loss of Istanbul and Ankara may create a domino effect with the perception that loss has set in and this may pave the way for defeat in the presidential and parliamentary elections in November 2019. To eliminate all these risks, debate has started over formulae for bringing the general elections forward ahead of the local elections, in contradistinction to the CHP’s proposal to bring forward the local elections. This formula is spoken of from the perspective: “If the general elections are brought forward, Erdoğan will be elected president. In the local elections in which this momentum will be maintained, Istanbul and Ankara will be won with strong names.”