Abdüllatif Şener: Gül candidacy will aid Erdoğan

The name of AKP founder and former Deputy Prime-Minister, Abdüllatif Şener, has featured of late in scenarios pertaining to the 2019 elections. Abdüllatif Şener, who has moved back into the limelight with him having spoken to CHP leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu last month and having been the most applauded guest at the Good Party congress held last Sunday, has left the “door open” over mayoral and presidential candidacy. Şener, indicating that he has not until now had talks about candidacy with absolutely any party, said, “However, if decision makers think that I am needed on a slate that ties in with their own road map, I will give it consideration.” The following are the key points from the replies Şener gave to questions about the opposition’s 2019 election strategy, speculation over his candidacy and the latest developments:

 The regime has changed and is evolving into BAATH

 Turkey’s regime changed together with the 16 April referendum. It is no longer a democratic regime. According to international analyses, Turkey has now turned into a regime similar to other Middle Eastern regimes. Let us call it the BAATH regime. It is evolving in this direction but this process has not been completed. The reason is that some of the constitutional articles that were approved in the 16 April referendum took effect immediately, but some of them will enter into force after the first election. If Erdoğan wins the first upcoming elections, the regime in Turkey will henceforth be one of the regimes we are accustomed to seeing in the Middle East. The system approved in the referendum is a total monstrosity. I mean, if you speak of a presidential system, it isn’t that, and if you speak of parliamentary democracy, it isn’t that. Turkey doesn’t deserve such a monstrous regime and it must be corrected. This makes the upcoming elections important. If the opposition candidate wins, even if restoration will take time, we will attain a degree of relief in terms of the climate in the immediate aftermath of that election.

 Opposition candidate profile

 I think three things are important. The first is electoral integrity. The opposition must without fail achieve electoral integrity. The second is that, prior to the presidential election, the opposition must create a powerful sense that Erdoğan will lose the elections. This is what it has got to do. The most conducive arena for testing electoral integrity will be the mayoral elections. If an opposition emerges that can sweep up Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir to say nothing of the Mediterranean - the big cities - the belief that Erdoğan is going to lose will be reinforced and an impression to this effect will take root around all the elections and this is most important. The third is the correct candidate. When I speak of the “correct candidate” (laughs), they say, “Are you referring to yourself?” No. In any case, I think it is right for each party to field its own candidate in the first round. I don’t think talk of an alliance candidate in terms of contesting the first round is correct. But, what is important, even if every party has a candidate in the first round, is for the candidate who makes it into the second round to be a candidate who is without fail capable of picking up the CHP’s, Good Party’s, SP’s and HDP’s votes in full and of picking up the SP and HDP “tactical votes” for the AKP in full. If these three conditions are complied with and no serious mistake is made, Mr Erdoğan will lose the election.

 Door open to presidency

 I have had talks with absolutely no party over any kind of candidacy until now. To this end, I am striving to bring about change to this negative structure. The things I am saying are all with a view to guiding politicians, because another one and a half years lie before us. We will say these things now, because at a time when nobody says “the king is naked” nobody will manage to dare say this. I will speak the truth even if I end up alone. Do I have an expectation from politics in an individual sense? To be truthful, I am not contemplating being a member of parliament from this stage onwards. But, with reference to other combinations before us (mayoralty, presidency), if decision makers think that I am needed on a slate that ties in with their own road map, I will give it consideration.

 Meeting with Kılıçdaroğlu

 Mr Kılıçdaroğlu has commented on this matter, and so have I. I am also having talks with all other parties. I have spoken to the SP, Good Party and even some HDP MPs. This was not my only meeting with Kılıçdaroğlu, either. I have previously spoken to him face-to-face on a number of occasions. But, we did not speak about candidacy in such concrete terms. I conveyed my opinions on the situation Turkey finds itself in, on politics and on what is important and must be done. We skirted around these things, that’s all. (On being asked if a proposal is forthcoming) If one comes, I will discuss it with my friends in the press and politics and we will make an assessment as to what is called for.

 The SP’s role

 I think the Felicity Party is important in this process. I have spoken of the kind of role played by AKP-supporting Kurdish voters. A lot of the SP’s tactical votes go to the AKP. Given it has no chance of crossing the threshold, those tactical voters still stick with the AKP. And, if it comes out as an alternative, the SP will be in a position to take its tactical votes away from Erdoğan. If it comes out with its guns blazing, I think that the SP’s vote, and just through attrition of the votes that go to the AKP, is a vote of at least 5-6 per cent. The SP being in this position is one of the most important factors that can cause an upset for Erdoğan.

 Will Gül be the SP’s candidate?

 The press is curious and they asked Gül. Mr Karamollaoğlu is put on the spot when asked and he gives a reply, too. The reply he gives does not boil down to him saying, “Gül is our candidate.” But the press favours the line of inquiry, “Does he possibly feel a closeness?” But, there is no such thing. What I have seen and gathered – I have had cordial discussions (with Karamollaoğlu) – they have fixed on no such candidate. But, if you take note, Mr Karamollaoğlu is talking to everyone. He is talking to both me and Gül. Indeed, he is talking to Erdoğan, as well as Meral Akşener and Kılıçdaroğlu. This kind of thing is responsible politics, actually.

 He cannot make it to the second round

 If Abdullah Gül stands, there is no chance of him making it through to the second round, because the CHP base will not vote for him and make it abundantly clear that they will not do so. Yılmaz Özdil even says that he would vote for Erdoğan in a Gül-Erdoğan run-off. This to an extent is down to his negative performance at the time he was president. He approved the law blocking Twitter and, when a ban subsequently came, posted Tweets from abroad. He did not resist things that merited resistance. To put it bluntly, he approved whatever Erdoğan sent his way. This has damaged the perception of Gül among CHP voters. And I think I have a degree of acquaintance with its base, but I have not encountered a positively inclined CHP supporter.

 The boundaries Erdoğan is charting

 Erdoğan is charting the paradigm of politics in Turkey. The kind of boundaries he is charting are such that moving beyond them is tantamount to denying the truth or deviating from the truth. The most typical example of this is the way it views the HDP. The perception of the HDP as “objectionable” is simply Erdoğan’s trap and this trap must not be fallen into. Do the sums. The HDP has ten per cent of the vote. An opposition that disregards these votes has no chance against Erdoğan. There is another critical point on top of this. The Kurdish votes that have gone to the AKP will determine the fate of the election more than the Kurdish votes captured by the HDP. These votes will determine both Erdoğan’s and the opposition’s fate. The AKP gets at least seven per cent of its vote from Kurdish voters. The most unhappy voters in Turkey just now are the AKP-voting Kurdish voters. And the unhappy Kurdish AKP voters will also determine the fate of the upcoming three elections. Let us not list them one by one, but the causes of this unhappiness are the partnership with the MHP, the operations in the region and Afrin. When Erdoğan most recently made the grey wolf gesture, a huge rupture ensued. These negative things I am speaking of do not mean that the Kurdish voters who are still with the party will of necessity break away and go elsewhere, because all the parties have followed a line that fosters the same fragility. Today the HDP, tomorrow others. Erdoğan is also constantly trying to stop the opposition parties that speak to conservative voters from drawing close to the CHP so that no alliance forms on the opposing front. This also serves as a boundary that has been erected for those parties. You ask who they want to make an alliance with and I see a reluctance for them to mention the CHP and HDP and you look and see even the CHP reluctant to mention the HDP. So, what result are you going to get with Erdoğan having delineated your political space? He is doing this on purpose, anyhow. Because, today it is the HDP, tomorrow the CHP, and the next day the Good Party and SP. If you leave the initiative to the power holders in a regime that is heading towards dictatorship, what happened to the HDP will befall the others.

Abdüllatif Şener: Gül’ün adaylığı Erdoğan’a yarar