Why is Mr Erdoğan so persistent over 16 April?

The question whose full answer evades followers of developments in Turkey is:

-Why is Mr Erdoğan so persistent about this constitutional amendment?

At first glance, given that what is aimed for with 16 April and through the ‘Turkish-style presidency’, for which there is no precedent anywhere else, is for all the reins of power to be passed into Mr Erdoğan’s hands, the question does not appear to make much sense.

But, if a little thought is exercised, it will become apparent that this is not really so.

I mean, the judicial reins are currently in Five Hills’s hand anyhow. Five Hills is both officially and de facto in charge of the executive. Mr Erdoğan also commands a majority in parliament thanks to his unrivalled clout within the AKP. Since parliament’s function as the legislative organ has also been usurped by the executive through the state of emergency and decrees with the force of law, what difference will it make whether ‘Yes’ or ‘No’ prevails on 16 April?

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At this point in the discussion, Mr Erdoğan’s opponents put forward an argument that at first glance does not appear to have much merit:

- Mr Erdoğan is aiming with this constitutional amendment to secure a guarantee for himself and the future.

The merits of this reply are undermined with the following argument:

- OK, but undemocratic regimes are not overthrown by normal democratic means, anyway. Look at history. Which of them has ever gone through election or parliamentary scrutiny?

This argument indeed makes one wonder why Mr Erdoğan is betting all on the hope that ‘Yes’ will prevail on 16 April.

Given in particular the ethnic terrorism, regional conflicts and economic situation that will make themselves felt in the aftermath of 16 April and Mr Erdoğan’s interned status in the international arena, Turkey will appear to be on a gradual slide towards ungovernability. With new borders being drawn in the Middle East in a manner that will impact on Turkey’s territorial unity, Mr Erdoğan’s loneliness, with the USA and Russia have reached a consensus that he be interned, will begin to offend the eye as a personal flaw that brings with it ever more glaring disadvantages.

It will become increasingly impossible for a Mr Erdoğan in this position to be packaged and sold as being a leader who is taking on the great powers.

In fact, public perception most certainly does not appear to be trending in this direction just now.

The following post that is doing the rounds on social media provides a clear pointer to where things stand:

- History has not seen such a victory! We went to take Al-Bab. We gave Kirkuk. We returned.

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In the aftermath of 16 April, Turkey’s relations with its allies and thereby with Germany are expected to become even more tense.

An article that appeared on 31 March in the German Der Spiegel magazine stood out in particular.

In the article, in which it is said that Turkey is monitoring its own citizens all over the world from Japan to Africa, Ulan Bator to Dar es Salaam and Copenhagen to Berlin, and is using its diplomatic functionaries, the intelligence agency and the Department of Religious Affairs’ prayer leaders abroad to this end, and that investigations have been launched in Germany and Austria into some of these, the following pronouncement is exceptionally thought-provoking:

‘It is clearly apparent that Turkey considers its espionage activities in these countries to be legal.’

It is also stated in the article, in which there is further mention of a measure having recently been implemented in Turkey whereby 130,000 people were removed from their jobs, with military personnel, police officers and teachers numbering among them, that if those who are being monitored by Turkish spies in Germany go to Turkey, they will be prosecuted.

The article is a harbinger of fresh tension that could well erupt and escalate between Turkey and Germany in the immediate aftermath of 16 April. If you then add to this the comments indicative of fresh conflict brewing with Vienna by the Austrian Green Party’s Security Spokesperson Pils that they will bring intermediaries in Turkish espionage activities in their country to justice, it would appear that, even if ‘Yes’ emerges from the polls, 17 April will not be easier than 16 April for Mr Erdoğan.

If so, what lies behind Mr Erdoğan’s dogged persistence over 16 April?