Background scenarios to the election

.

Kemal Can

Yayınlanma: 22.05.2018 - 13:32

Güncelleme: 22.05.2018 - 13:36

Even if the election atmosphere has yet to grip the streets, predictions and discussions

intensify about who will get what vote, whether the presidential election will go to a second

round and possible parliamentary arithmetic. But, one significant difference about this

election is that the hidden scenarios have yet to receive much attention even though there are

but days to go.

• What impact is discussion of the economic crisis having on the election?

We are going through an experience rarely encountered in the realm of political science and

political communications, not only for Turkey but probably in the entire world. The ruling

party is attempting to use the risk of an economic crisis as an advantage and to turn stability

into blackmail. Criticising the opposition by saying, “They have no other project apart from

turfing us out,” it says with reference to the collapse of major indicators, not least foreign

exchange, “The mere possibility of change has done this. Just think what will happen if there

is a change of power.”

It is debatable how much the out-of-proportion election packages will influence the

electorate. But, certain indisputable consequences are undoubtedly making themselves felt at

large: First, assuaging the concerns of circles who derive direct benefit from the ruling body

and, according to some, account for one-third of the AKP’s vote (around fifteen per cent of

the total vote). Second, through an assault with multifarious pledges, destroying the focus of

the opposing campaign by dragging the opposition into an area in which it is hard for it to

compete in the short term.

• Are relations with the West and the international system changing?

Various spins have been put on Erdoğan’s trip to Britain and the article that appeared in the

The Times whose message could be interpreted as, “It would be more intelligent to keep

going with this ruling body.” Speculation that descends into deep plots entails the raising of

such questions as whether the AKP has reached fresh agreement with the West or if the West

is looking for a new actor. Cited as evidence are the failure for the Jerusalem affair,

potentially a productive source of pre-election propaganda, to be milked to the expected

degree and the deafening lack of anti-Western clamour. It is a reality that the international

system and economic power centres more greatly want and support certain political results.

The appearance of having obtained approval from these entities is an argument frequently

resorted to by the holders of power. However, it is clear that politics is not an area that is

governed purely by “centres of power.” Were this so, the claim, “this ruling body has

definitely fallen from grace” previously made by those who tout such arguments would by

now have engendered a result.

• Will the alliances in the election process suffer defeat on 24 June?

One point surrounding the election that engenders much discussion is, regardless of the

result, the kind of coalition that the new governing entity will create and how the alliances

will be transplanted into the post-electoral landscape. The ruling body has for some time

taken to criticising the opposition, not as a monolithic opposing front, but in terms of the

differences inherent in its lack of cohesion. With the postulation “They’re all the same” no

longer serving any purpose, there is an attempt to undermine the opposition by saying,

“They’re all different.”

A reshaping of the alliance is also being mooted by the current governing body. There is talk

in the lobbies of the AKP preparing alternatives depending on the results or to counter clear

threats. A number of options are said to be on the table from a change of partner to policy

realignment. But, on the governing front, uncertainty rather than a defined position in this

regard is deemed more beneficial mindful both of keeping all potential benefits alive and the

confusion this sows on the other side

• What lies behind the harmonisation law initiative and talk of talk of them having A, B and

C plans?

An unending election-related discussion keeps going with new arguments: There is talk of a

variety of scenarios going as far as the election having no importance, the infrastructure of

the new regime already having been set up, surprise preparations having been made for the

election result and even that the election may not be held under some pretext. Each word that

is spoken and each step that is taken is used as proof of these scenarios and hidden agendas.

Erdoğan, who has not yet managed to create the impression of being the undisputed victor of

the election, the dominator of the agenda and the sole playmaker of politics, has for some

time been using these conspiracy scenarios that are multiplying in opposition circles to

further an effortless display of power. The belief that he will absolutely find a way of

winning or will withhold consent even if he loses feeds the perception of invincibility. The

threat of instability/destabilisation works in the governing body’s favour.

• Are claims of the results being open to surprise and a “bounce-back from the bottom”

realistic?

Research and analyses that merit consideration do not speak of very radical shifts between

voting blocks. There is nevertheless talk of a bounce-back that has yet to turn into

determinable trends and the potential for a surprise result. The capability of alliances to turn

very small percentages into large differences and the impossibility of fully measuring the

effect that the shattering of certain preconceptions has created and will create fuel

expectations of a surprise. But, as to what the surprise will be, this remains an enigma. The

opposition parties voice the claim that a bounce-back the like of which has rarely been

witnessable is taking place. Particularly spokespersons of the Good Party and SP who allege

that they will take votes from the governing party. Both the governing party and the

opposition allege that the electorate is readying itself to deliver a slap and treat 24 June as a

fresh starting point. With certain claims supported by exaggerated and suspicion-provoking

polls, great recourse is made to the thesis that the true result is not fully measurable.

Unknowability is everyone’s game.

En Çok Okunan Haberler

iOS Mobil Uygulaması Android Mobil Uygulaması