The known and the unknown

With the elections approaching, some things are known, and there are unknown factors that will determine the result of the 24 June elections. To list them:

İNCE HAS GENERATED EXCITEMENT: The CHP’s choice in the presidential contest of Muharrem İnce, hugely popular in the base, has greatly motivated CHP voters and its machinery. Add to this Muharrem İnce’s warlike stance, and the CHP appears set to go to the polls with an excitement unwitnessed in the past three elections.

BAD NEWS FOR AKŞENER: Muharrem İnce’s candidacy is bad news for Meral Akşener. All the polls showed the Good Party having taken 3-4 points from the CHP. İnce will take back a portion of these votes.

WILL THERE BE A SECOND ROUND?: If there is to be a second round, it will take place between Muharrem İnce, not Meral Akşener, and Tayyip Erdoğan. Akşener will enter parliament with a powerful group, though, thanks to the “alliance formula.” My guess is she will position herself for the subsequent election and will aim to boost her party through resolute opposition.

THE SPELL IS BROKEN: Even if there is no change of power, this election is a turning point. The spell has broken for the Justice and Development Party, which until yesterday gave the appearance of being “invincible.” Even if it takes this election, the political Islamism it represents has from now on assumed a downward trajectory. For the first time, the citizen has begun to contemplate the thought that one day not Tayyip Erdoğan, but a different leader, will govern Turkey. The mere existence of this thought is a turning point.

STEREOTYPES ARE CRUMBLING: There are various sociological and economic reasons for the decline on which Political Islam is embarking; however, the opposition gradually bringing itself into order and showing the resolve to push past the rigid borders of identity politics is also playing a role in this. Five years hence, the Sunni-Alevi, religious-secular and Turkish-Kurdish fault lines will not be as decisive in Turkey’s politics as they are today; the opposition will turn into a more pluralist structure. This is an advantage for Erdoğan’s opponents and a disadvantage for the AKP.

URBAN CONSERVATIVES: The greatest enigma in this election is what the five per cent “urban conservative” segment which is moving away from the ruling party will do. We know these voters are looking for a new address and long for change, but can’t see themselves voting for the CHP. So, where will these middle-class conservative voters go? Will Muharrem İnce be able to stretch past the CHP base and grab a few points from the conservative vote? Will Felicity manage a five per cent leap on the back of this? This is the greatest enigma of the election.

COURTING THE KURDISH VOTE: Another factor that will determine the result will be the actions of the Kurdish electorate. The AKP has of late upset the Kurdish electorate that votes for it with its Turkish nationalist style and its alliance with the MHP. My guess is that its strategy going forward will be to bring the HDP to below the threshold through duress and legal obstacles, while endeavouring to win over the non-HDP Kurdish electorate with congenial messages. It is for this self-same reason that President Erdoğan is all of a sudden not giving the number of “deactivated terrorists” several times a day and no longer speaks of going to Manbij and then Kobani after Afrin, and, indeed, that Ayşe teacher, who had been thrown in jail for phoning into a programme on Kanal D and saying “Let children not die,” was abruptly released on Friday. The AKP is chasing the Kurdish votes it has lost.

UP AGAINST MUHARREM İNCE IN THE SECOND ROUND: I have no idea if the AKP-voting Kurdish electorate would have been wooed with such messages in the past and would have returned to the ruling party. However, it is clear that HDP voters will not gravitate towards the AKP. They will vote heavily for Selahattin Demirtaş in the first round and for their own party to see it over the threshold. Wholeheartedly. And my guess is that there is a good chance of them gravitating towards Muharrem İnce in the second round. İnce is a politician who has loudly objected to the exclusion of the HDP and the lifting of immunities, not yesterday or last week, but for two years. On the day on which immunities were lifted, İnce voted against this and joined Selahattin Demirtaş in the parliamentary grounds and opted to sit along with the HDP people in what amounted to a protest against his party’s position. This truly happened and it is not an easily forgettable photograph.  

Bilinenler, bilinmeyenler