The AKP’s critical one year

Erdem Gül
 
Now that President Tayyip Erdoğan has, as the AKP’s General Chair, set up the party’s new shop window, the cabinet revision to which attention has shifted is also being read for the first time as to what it portends for the ‘political future’ of the party. There is a realisation within the party that the cabinet revision being awaited with bated breath comes as the party enters the most critical year of its fourteen years in power.
With Erdoğan having become party chair and having decided on the party’s shop window, cabinet revision now appears to be ‘around the corner’ for Ankara. Initially, with no strong hints of cabinet revision emanating from Erdoğan, the view gained currency that no such thing was in the offing.  However, the word in the AKP corridors is that a decision has been taken to revise the cabinet and it is expected to happen. Even if Prime-Minister Binali Yıldırım shares Erdoğan’s preference for remaining silent on the matter, cabinet revision is regarded as being a certainty following today’s weekly routine meetings.
The AKP’s future
As ever in all parties that rule unaided, the cabinet revision is awaited with great excitement in AKP circles with ‘red number plates’ being eyed up. As in the run-up to all revisions, most of the chatter in the party is devoted to ‘ministerial lottery’ forecasts. However, there is emphasis in milieus where the party administration’s views find resonance that this time the situation is different. And attention is drawn to the different and critical implications that the cabinet revision brings with it for the first time.
Election indicators
There is furious speculation over who will become a minister and discussion of names among members of parliament, but, according to party administration, the cabinet revision will be of significance in terms of charting the path that the party will tread in the aftermath of the 16 April referendum. Viewed in these terms, it is noted that the revision that also portends as to the party’s future will serve as a pointer as to whether the elections will be held on time in 2019 or will be brought forward. Discussion in AKP corridors is from the following two angles:
* The names in the cabinet revision are of course important, but it is the scale of the revision rather than the names that will be decisive. It will more or less set out the party’s road map. In-party analysis has it that if the cabinet revision is on a large scale, that is, if change encompasses at least five or ten ministers, this will mean that 2019 will not be awaited for these elections. A cabinet created under a revision on this scale will amount to an ‘election cabinet’. If there is a large-scale revision, an election will be held in the autumn of this year and, if not, by 2018 at the latest. The party will have brought its ultimate forces onstage prior to the parliamentary elections in tandem with the presidency that is of vital importance. And all resources will be brought into play.
* A second possibility is that the revision will involve narrower change. A decision of this nature will be perceived in the party as readiness by Erdoğan to await the appointed date of 2019 as he will not have brought all the trump cards at the party’s disposal into play. A new cabinet resulting from small-scale revision will not create the impression of being the last cabinet before the elections. Such a change, leading to the perception of the party setting its sights on 2019, will give rise to the expectation that small-scale revisions will continue in line with conjunctural developments and logjams that occur as events unfold until that date.
The expectation is high, though
Even though we are more or less on the verge of the revision, there is no clear information as to which of these two options the party will go for. Expectations rose greatly with Erdoğan, despite being president, taking over at the top of the party. This boosted the expectation within the party that the cabinet revision would be on a large scale. The word is that, in line with this expectation and the critical nature assumed by the elections following the 51-49 percentage on 16 April, the revision must be radical and large scale.
However, it is noticeable that in the face of all these expectations, Erdoğan has opted for a narrow revision in the Central Decision and Executive Committee and the Central Executive Committee that is a continuation of this. There is thus a perceptible majority that allows for the possibility of a narrow and small-scale cabinet revision in which, similarly, few pieces will be moved. In analyses proposed by those of this persuasion, Erdoğan will also bear in mind the partnership with the MHP that supports Erdoğan’s presidency and will not decide on an election at this stage but will monitor the progress of events, and the cabinet revision will also reflect this thinking.