US midterm elections set to shape future of Washington's support for Ukraine

US support for Ukraine amid Russia’s “special military operation” has been pivotal in Kyiv’s resisting missile and drone strikes by Moscow on its critical infrastructure, and in Ukrainian efforts to liberate its Russian-controlled territories.

Most recently, on Friday, the US announced a new $400 million military aid package for Ukraine, including funding to refurbish HAWK air defense missiles for future transfers to Ukraine, 45 refurbished T-72B tanks, and 1,100 Phoenix Ghost drones.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy thanked US President Joe Biden for the latest round of assistance, pointing in particular to the supply of armored vehicles, which he said will "help us liberate Ukrainian land."

With the latest funding, US military aid to Ukraine under the Biden administration has reached more than $18.9 billion, with the lion’s share coming after this Feb. 24, when Russia began its war on its neighbor.

But the results of Tuesday’s US midterm elections may change Washington’s approach on Kyiv, with many polls predicting control of the US Congress shifting to Republicans, a party whose support for Ukraine is less steadfast than the Democrats, who control the chambers now.

Top Republican stresses no ‘blank check’

Kevin McCarthy, the top Republican in the House of Representatives, said his party will not write a “blank check” for Ukraine if they win back the House majority.

“I think people are gonna be sitting in a recession and they’re not going to write a blank check to Ukraine,” McCarthy, the House minority leader, was quoted as telling Punchbowl News, using the phrase “blank check” at least three times.

White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre brushed off a question on McCarthy’s statement but underlined Biden’s “unflinching and unwavering” support, which was also reiterated during US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan’s visit to Ukraine on Friday.

But under the US Constitution, it is normally Congress, not the president, which controls the nation’s purse strings, so any future aid for Ukraine will have to be approved by both houses of Congress.

Online outlet Politico reported last month that if the Republicans win one or both houses of Congress on Tuesday, future military aid to Ukraine “may be caught up in Republican infighting over federal spending that’s emerged in recent months.”

Republican firebrand House member Marjorie Taylor Greene has said, “Under Republicans, not another penny will go to Ukraine,” with Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida also suggesting aid will be cut off altogether.

This thinking also seems to fall in line with the preferences of Republican voters. Just after the war began, in March, just 6% of Republicans said the US was doing too much to help Ukraine, but now nearly half do, 48%. Former President Donald Trump, the Republicans’ de facto leader, has at times expressed admiration for President Vladimir Putin’s war on Ukraine, and was himself reluctant to supply arms to Ukraine to defend itself.

The statements by McCarthy and his House colleagues have made the rounds of US and global media outlets on how the midterm elections could impact Washington’s future support to Ukraine, showing a stark divide among US politicians and their parties.

Push for negotiations between Kyiv, Moscow

Elsewhere, Western media outlets have claimed there are US efforts to convince Ukraine to hold talks with Russia.

According to a Washington Post report on Saturday, the US privately told Ukraine to be open to talks with Russia, asking officials in Kyiv to abandon peace talks conditioned to Putin's removal from office.

Last month, Zelenskyy signed a decree that declared Russia's annexation of parts of Ukraine null and void and also signed another decree on Sept. 30 that stated the "impossibility of negotiations" with Putin.

But on Tuesday, in a video address at the UN climate change conference COP27, Zelenskyy set out conditions for talks with Russia, including calling on Moscow to comply with the UN Charter and pay compensation for losses caused by the ongoing war.

The address, which also reiterated Zelenskyy’s calls for the restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity, the punishment of every war criminal, and guarantees that this will not happen again, may suggest a change in Ukrainian policy, possibly pushed by a future US Congress controlled by Republicans cutting off military aid to the besieged Eastern European nation.