Opinion: Shifting Geopolitics: Reflections on the G20 Meeting of 2023

When reflecting upon the image portrayed by this year's G20 meeting, presided over by India, it becomes evident that the competition among major global powers has continued to intensify. Nationalistic tendencies have gained momentum, the concept of "globalization" has waned, and the significance of democracy has diminished. Meanwhile, Europe's influence has waned, and the prominence of the "global South" has grown, with Turkey's role within this picture becoming increasingly blurred.

The G20 was established in 1999 during the Kosovo War and the NATO expansion into Russia's immediate neighbourhood, encompassing the Czech Republic, Poland, and Hungary. This development occurred amid the financial uncertainties triggered by the first major financial crisis of neoliberal globalization, known as the Asian crisis of 1997-99.

During this period, a growing number of figures in US foreign policy circles supported an "imperial project" under the influence of neoconservatives, who argued that "the US economic power may be waning, but its military might remain unrivalled." In this context, the G20 was founded to coordinate global economic growth and financial stability – essentially managing the process of globalization – as part of the US and the West's effort to restore their hegemony. Over the years, the G20's agenda expanded to include issues such as climate change and international migration. Last year, the G20's Bali declaration strongly condemned Russia's invasion of Ukraine, underscoring the continued dominance of the US and the West, albeit in a weakened form.

However, as I reported last week, terms like "we have reached the brink" and "breaking point" were frequently invoked when discussing global developments this year. The G20 meeting chaired by India was also conducted within this "breaking point" atmosphere. In this context, two notable developments stand out. Firstly, the absence of leaders from Russia and China. While Putin's absence is easily explained, Xi Jinping's absence may carry special significance. Some commentators suggest that China no longer values Western-established institutions and will not align with India, its primary regional rival, in its efforts to enhance its influence. If this interpretation holds true, geopolitical tensions in the region are poised to escalate, and the race between India and China for leadership in the "global South" will intensify.

The second significant development is the ongoing erosion of European influence. In recent months, France, the most militarily potent European nation, has been compelled to withdraw from its African spheres of influence. Germany, the EU's economic powerhouse, is apprehensive about Chinese competition in its automotive industry. Europe is also troubled by China's tendency to export deflation. Notably, this year's G20 declaration does not mention Russia or Ukraine, even as Europe witnesses the largest land war in recent history unfolding on its territory.

Thirdly, the United States has not abandoned the practice of sidelining democracy and human rights in geopolitics. This was evident in the attention bestowed upon Modi, the President of India, who continued to endorse "genocidal" actions against Muslims and other religious minorities while stifling opposition press.

The admission of the African Union as a G20 member and the handover of the presidency to Brazil, the largest Latin American economy, under the leadership of the social democrat Lula, further signifies the growing importance of the "global South."

In this picture, it is noteworthy that Turkey, under the AKP leadership, which has acted as a conduit for Russia's demands to the West after the Putin-Erdogan Sochi summit, is advocating for India's inclusion in the UN Security Council. This is perplexing, given India's oppressive treatment of its Muslim citizens and the looming risk of genocide. While a new Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict takes shape, India is supplying rocket systems to Armenia.

At the G20, Erdogan embraces Modi, but the "India-Middle East-Europe route," proposed as an alternative to China's Belt and Road Project through the US-India initiative, visits Gulf countries, Israel, and Greece, but conspicuously bypasses Turkey. It appears that under AKP leadership, Turkey's efforts to become an "indispensable nation" have instead rendered it a “negligible nation.”