Report prepared for Erdoğan speaks of fall to 240 seats

President and AKP General Chair Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s list of parliamentary candidates was allegedly compiled with a view to not losing the majority in parliament, but internal party assessments suggest the number of seats may be as low as 240. There are claims that Erdoğan has prepared a B and C plan for these eventualities.

 According to a report by Besti Karalar of ANKA, the following details were included in the report complied for President Erdoğan by the AKP’s election strategy team before the parliamentary candidate lists were settled on:

 “The HDP is still strong in the South East. There is a high likelihood that it will surmount the threshold. Our Kurdish vote may fall in the South East. The candidates in these provinces will be decisive. The Good Party is taking 70% of the MHP’s vote. The polls show there is a large-scale swing from the MHP to the Good Party. It is very likely to surmount the threshold. If the HDP and Good Party surmount the threshold, the AK Party may win between 220 and 240 seats. The polls are pointing to the total number of seats of the opposition parties exceeding 340. Candidate profiles are important.”

 Erdoğan is said to have drawn up the list of MPs in view of the information contained in this report.

 B Plan: Stepping down

 With Erdoğan’s election being regarded as a certainty in the AKP, attention is being focused on the possibility of a fall in the number of seats. Accordingly, ministers are being refielded as parliamentary candidates in the endeavour to secure a parliamentary majority. The word in the AKP lobbies is that Berat Albayrak, Nurettin Canikli, Bekir Bozdağ, Numan Kurtulmuş and Abdülhamit Gül will step down as members of parliament following the 24 June elections and take up posts in the government system that will be newly formed.

 C Plan: Fresh election

 If the number of the AKP’s seats in parliament falls, the C Plan will come into play. Erdoğan’s final plan, even if he does not consider it likely, is to hold fresh elections. The discussion in the AKP lobbies is, “Erdoğan will be the president of the new system. However, if there is a fall in the number of our parliamentary seats or it is less than the total number of the opposition parties’ seats, we will embark on a fresh election. Otherwise, there will be no stability. For the party of which the president is general chair to have fewer seats than the total number of seats of the opposition parties facing it will compromise stability. The opposition will make the president’s task difficult. No laws will be enacted in parliament.”

 Erdoğan’a hazırlanan rapor: 240'ta kalabiliriz