‘Yes’ in crisis

MHP NOT ENOUGH
The AKP is having trouble with its plan to make Erdoğan into the ‘single man’. With the AKP and its unconditional supporter, Bahçeli’s MHP, having close to a 60% share of the vote, this share remains stubbornly below 45% in the referendum. This indicates that more than 10% of these two parties’ voters will not vote ‘Yes’.
‘NO’ VOICES IN THE BASE
Even if the desertions from the ‘Yes’ block are attributed to the MHP base, there is a group in the AKP that does not support ‘Yes’. The AKP top brass, reckoning on some of their former administrators and MPs who for some time have been ostracised but have not given expression to their critical attitudes voting ‘No,’ will try to persuade both this group and MHP people.
TURNOUT WILL BE DECISIVE
According to research conducted in 24 provinces and 85 sub-provinces by Gezici Research Centre, the referendum result is on a knife edge. ‘Yes’ has a 48.9% of the vote, while ‘No’ is supported by 51.1%. According to Murat Gezici, if the turnout is high, ‘No’ has a higher chance of winning.