Alliance scenarios in the opposition corridors

A number of scenarios for alliances and the presidential candidate are doing the rounds among the opposition. Among names mentioned are Gül, Akşener, Büyükerşen and Kesici.

24 Nisan 2018 Salı, 14:22
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With the 24 June elections drawing closer, a number of scenarios are doing the rounds. With debate raging over potential alliance models for taking the election in the first round
and who is to stand, if agreement cannot be reached, the aim is for each party to field its own candidate thus denying President Tayyip Erdoğanof the opportunity to take the election in the first round. In this event, calculations are being made as to taking the election in the second round on 8 July under a necessary and natural alliance that will form among the opposition parties in the second round. However, the People’s Alliance’s goal of not putting the election at risk and wrapping it up in the first round is forcing the opposition towards a joint candidate who has the potential to get the most votes after Erdoğan.
The alliance models on the table are as follow:
* Possibility of a joint candidate: The view that the parties could field a joint candidate following negotiations is gaining ground following the transfer of CHP members of parliament to the Good Party. It is observed that a candidate could be fielded who is not a party leader and who is capable of embracing the CHP, SP and Good Party bases along with the bases of other parties.
* The option of Akşener as joint candidate: The observation is also doing the rounds that Akşener will be the joint candidate. However, it is said that this is a slim possibility because Akşener is a party general chair, and also that Akşener will be unable to get the votes of the Kurdish electorate.
* Joint name poses difficulties: It is noted in the opposition, premised on the fact that the strategy in the People’s Alliance is to wrap the business up in the first round, that any potential joint candidate to be fielded must be a figure who will for sure be able to take votes above all from Erdoğan. Heading the list of those who best fit this bill is Abdullah Gül, whom the SP have wanted from the outset. However, this possibility is said to be slim because a Gül candidacy will not find favour among either the CHP’s management or its base. Another name being voiced as a potential joint candidate is that of Abdüllatif Şener, the former Deputy Prime Minister who left the AKP in 2009. Prior to the early election decision, Şener’s name was being touted in mayoral scenarios.
* The alliance’s not the CHP’s candidate: It is observed that, despite the Gül option being a slim possibility among the CHP, it will be easy to convince the CHP’s management and its base once the Good Party has given its blessing. It is opined that fielding Gül not as the CHP’s candidate but as a joint candidate will also circumvent potential arguments.
* Each party may field a candidate: The option closest to the opposition’s heart is that of making an alliance in the general elections but everyone fielding their own candidate for the presidency. A multicandidate election would thus be held and the People’s Alliance is not expected to be capable of gaining 51 per cent in the first round. However, it is said that in this event the SP must still persuade Abdullah Gül, the figure having the potential to take most votes from Erdoğan. However, the word in the corridors is that Gül will not take the risk of standing as a single party’s candidate.
* The CHP’s candidates: With the opinion gaining ground in the CHP corridors that the General Chair Kılıçdaroğlu’s candidacy is getting less likely, the possible candidates are Eskişehir Mayor Yılmaz Büyükerşen, İzmir Mayor Aziz Kocaoğlu and İstanbul MP İlhan Kesici.