"The USA's Mexico Dilemma: Is Military Intervention Looming?"

The American war machine, which has operated under the guise of democracy since the 2003 invasion of Iraq, sees a fresh opportunity on the horizon. Fentanyl-related youth crises and a worsening immigration situation have spurred US Republicans into action. Unlike their Democratic counterparts, who are primarily focused on Ukraine, Republicans have turned their attention to challenges closer to home. Recent debates among Republican candidates for the 2024 elections have prominently featured discussions on the Mexican issue, with all leading candidates expressing support for potential intervention. But what would happen if the United States embarked on such an audacious venture?

AERIAL INTERVENTION: WILL IT WORK?

The United States traditionally initiates its actions against adversaries with airstrikes, often anticipating political outcomes before deploying ground forces. However, such an approach in Mexico may face significant hurdles. The elusive nature of cartel structures, hidden within Mexico's rugged terrain and urban centers, would make precision airstrikes challenging. Aerial intervention would likely result in substantial civilian casualties, and it may not effectively neutralize the cartels. Worse yet, the aftermath could involve cartels capitalizing on the chaos, recruiting civilians under the guise of "homeland defense."

LAND INVASION: A NEW VIETNAM?

Consideration of a land invasion brings its own set of challenges. While the United States possesses an annual defense budget exceeding $800 billion, victory in Mexico might not be as straightforward as military expenditure suggests. The Mexican cartels, in recent years, have transformed from a mere "mafia" image to formidable adversaries equipped with significant wealth, advanced weaponry, and armored vehicles. To make matters more complex, former Mexican military personnel, trained partly by the United States in the 1990s, have joined the cartels. Some of these trained special operatives have established themselves within the ranks of cartels like Los Zetas, which now competes not only against Mexican security forces but also against Sinaloa, the country's largest cartel.

THE IMPORTANCE OF MEXICO'S CONSENT

Former US President Donald Trump suggested that the United States could intervene in Mexican cartels without Mexico's permission. However, a unilateral US move would carry significant risks. Largest among them is the availability of ground personnel. Mexico, a country larger and more populous than Iraq, would need a substantial force exceeding the 160,000 troops deployed in Iraq. Recruiting such a large number of troops presents a challenge, especially for a US military that has struggled to meet recruitment quotas for nearly half a decade. An operation without Mexican support could result in guerrilla-style attacks, drawing the local population against the occupying US forces. Urban neighborhood operations akin to the Fallujah campaign in Iraq may become necessary, leading to more casualties and civilian deaths.

A US intervention could inadvertently replace one cartel with another where Mexican authorities fail to maintain local law and order. In this scenario, despite US efforts, the cycle of violence and instability could persist. In essence, Mexico could become a significant quagmire for the United States.

CHINA, RUSSIA, AND GLOBAL OPINION

Sources close to Republicans have suggested that Chinese companies supplied chemicals linked to the fentanyl crisis in the United States to Mexican cartels. Russia fighting Ukraine, in a proxy war against U.S and China sabre rattling against another proxy like Taiwan, could find an opportunity to exhaust U.S with a similar proxy like Mexico. In the event of a US invasion, China and Russia may seek to inflict maximum damage on the United States. They could leverage the situation to paint the US as an occupier, rallying global opinion against it. Mexico, for its part, views any foreign intervention as an attack on its sovereignty and is reluctant to label the cartels as terrorist organizations, as this could impact crucial revenue sources such as tourism.

As the United States explores its options to address external challenges emanating from Mexico, the risks associated with military intervention are substantial. The nation finds itself at a crossroads, with Republicans advocating for action while Democrats, preoccupied with Ukraine, remain cautious. The potential pitfalls of a Mexican invasion make it a daunting prospect for the United States, even as election campaigns promise dramatic outcomes. With leading candidates like Trump and Ramaswamy pledging swift action to be taken in 24 hours, November 6, 2024, holds the promise of being the most eventful day of history.